3/7/07

The Mutual Fund review

“What should I look for in a fund? I recently rolled over a 401(k) into an IRA and right now sitting in a money market account (I’m peeved at my advisor about that). I’m looking for some good aggressive growth funds. One more thing: The IRA is about 6K. Should I put it in one mutual fund, or a couple, or a hundred? Thanks, Kelly.”

As I composed my response, I realized that these questions were reflective of hundreds of others I’ve received over the years. For that reason, I’m providing my reply for the many other Kellys who haven’t yet gotten around to asking them. Here’s what I said.

“Dear Kelly,

“You’ve posed a couple of questions that most aspiring investors should ask, but rarely do: What should you look for in a mutual fund and of equal significance, what belongs in an IRA? You then added that you’re peeved with your advisor that your assets are now sitting in a money market account where they’re no doubt earning next to nothing. Whether you realize it or not, you’ve touched at the very heart of investment and what is lacking in most persons’ understanding.

“I’ll start with your first query: ‘What should I look for in a fund?’ Let me make an admission. In case you think that I can recommend with uncanny accuracy just which funds will most prosper in the future, the blunt truth is that I cannot. I do not happen to know where the market is going. I cannot tell you whether the technology sector, the international arena, or the service industries will be higher or lower next month . . . or next year. But, understand that neither do the professionals who advise you. By and large they are as surprised as you by what happens. There’s not a one of them that can tell you with certainty whether the S&P 500 Average will be up or down tomorrow. And why should they really know? They all read the same periodicals, take the same seminars, digest the same reports, tout the same rumors, spew the same hyperbole, and regularly exchange identical views among themselves. Is it any wonder that what goes on in the world of investment is, for most persons employed there, unfathomable? You should note, though, that from their standpoint it really doesn’t matter, for their livelihood doesn’t depend on whether or not you prosper. Your advisor makes a living either by charging for advice—good or bad—or by payment of commission upon your purchase or sale of anything. Nor do the mutual fund personnel particularly care whether your assets shrink or grow, for their remuneration is the result of fees their firms take, normally based on a percentage of the total assets managed, which is why each mutual fund strives to increase its share of overall invested assets. Whether a particular client’s assets increase or decrease is without significance. Of course, the counselors’ lives are less burdensome if they’re not required to defend bad investment choices. For this reason, most prefer the index funds. In this way, they cannot be blamed when things go wrong. They’re off the hook since all losses can be attributed to mythical market forces.

“Now that you understand the complexities—and my limitations—we can approach the industry realistically. The concept of the open-end investment company, commonly known as a mutual fund, has been around and mutating since 1924. Over the past several decades it has become the ‘investment by default’ for most Americans, the majority of whom haven’t the slightest idea what they own, or why. Thanks to effective promotion by the industry, this vehicle has taken on a life of its own, where any suggestion that it’s not appropriate is met with derision. This is the environment in which you find yourself, and if you hope to prosper, you’d better educate yourself. The best way to start is by familiarizing yourself with the elements of the subject. There is a fundamental rule that says: ‘When you know the details, no one can lie to you.’ For this reason, I’ll suggest that you get your hands on a small and inexpensive book in the Barron’s Business Keys series: ‘Keys to Investing in Mutual Funds.’ It contains only 158 pages, can be purchased through Amazon for a few bucks, and is exceptionally easy but enlightening reading. Until you’ve read that, you should leave your IRA money right in the money market account where it is. Though you may not realize it, your advisor provided a most valuable service.

“Let me now inform you of a personal uneasiness I have concerning mutual funds in general that you’ll not read in the Barron’s book. My discomfiture is with the evolution of an industry in which the placing of investors’ money seems, at best, a secondary consideration. The fact that a substantial and growing percentage of the nation's assets is now committed to funds fuels a part of the concern. The rapid growth in the numbers and varieties of funds offered triggers more uneasiness. But it is the synergistic effect, coupled with basic human nature, that could result in unpredictable problems for the economy of the nation.

“I’ll run the risk of asking rhetorical questions. Who are the thousands of officers and directors of the funds? How did the investor’s interests advance when the average fund manager’s annual compensation increased to over $1,000,000 in 1996? What is the background and experience of the multitude of securities analysts employed? Who will benefit from the growing trend in fund mergers, and in what fashion? Is the investor really well served by a fund that merely places its monies in proportion to a specifically designed index or another that simply acquires shares of other funds? What does the scandal that rocked many of the prominent mutual funds in the autumn of 2003 portend for the future of the industry? And above all, who in God’s name is watching the store? Incidentally, in case you don’t recall those events in 2003, you might visit my Website www.onthemoneytrail.com, click onto Newsletter Archives, and read the December 2003 article ‘Investment Guidelines for the Year Ahead.’ I’ll repeat what I said then. What the future holds for the mutual fund industry is hard to say, but one thing is certain: The fortunes to be made, legally or otherwise, fuel an insidious attraction. The question we must ask is whether it is becoming a self-propelled labyrinth, with few realistic controls, in the hands of persons who will systematically loot the assets with no compunction. If so, the nation will surely experience a misfortune of momentous proportion.

“I’ll wrap this up with my views on what belongs in an IRA account. Contrary to the recommendations you’ll receive from most financial analysts and advisors, a traditional tax-deferred—or even more favorable tax-free Roth IRA—should not be stuffed with mutual funds, whether they be aggressive growth, balanced, sector, or index. My belief is that these accounts are better utilized when they contain interest-bearing investments. Once again there is not room here to get into details. Mutual Fund review, However, if you again visit the Newsletter Archives of my Website, you’ll find two articles there that spell it out pretty clearly. They are December 2002, Mutual Fund review‘Why Bonds Belong in a Retirement Account,’ and February 2003, ‘Junk Bonds Need Not Be a Crapshoot.’

Real estate bubble

The subject of real estate is seldom discussed today without mention of the omnipresent housing bubble. From all reports, it seems certain to burst, bringing with Real estate bubble a cornucopia of misfortune for millions of souls. Judging from the incessant flow of articles and commentary, it is a national obsession. Real estate bubble Publications of such stature as Reuters and Businessweek and persons as prominent as Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan are regularly addressing the problem. The questions that must be posed, of course, are exactly what is this bubble and how does it threaten America?

The first of these two questions is the easier to answer. The bubble is a result of a real estate frenzy in which home prices rose rapidly. According to a recent government report, U.S. home values are 55 percent higher than five years ago, which reinforces a study by investment bank Credit Suisse First Boston indicating that home buying is increasingly driven by speculation. In light of current marketing practices that include zero down payments, adjustable mortgage loans with initial negative amortization, and unrealistically lenient loan qualification, the rapid escalation in values is understandable. Such speculative booms traditionally end as the speculators begin to cash in or when credit tightens. There is nothing unique about this scenario, last observed in the early 1990s.

It’s the second question, how America is threatened, that’s not so simply perceived. The reason is that this nation is remarkably diverse, with the factors that characterize one geographical area often entirely different from another. My locale, Orange County, California, with the county’s median priced home affordable by only 11 percent of prospective buyers, illustrates an overheated market. One striking example: On July 18, 2002, a 3-bedroom, 2½-bath, condominium in a 245-unit complex in the county’s largest city, Santa Ana, was purchased for $170,000. On June 14, 2005, that unit sold for $480,000 to a purchaser who, in my opinion, will be hopelessly unable to make the contracted mortgage loan payments in the event of the slightest misfortune. And to get a sense of the home-owning climate in this exceptionally prosperous county, multiply the situation just described by thousands more exactly like it. We can only speculate on what the future holds for a substantial portion of the populace here. But as precarious as it may seem in certain metropolitan areas, most notably New York, Boston, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Washington, D.C., that recently experienced price explosion, other regions are unaffected. If you’d care to acquire a home in the delightful community of Inkster, North Dakota, just twenty-five miles west of the Minnesota border, you may purchase a particular 3-bedroom detached home on 6th Street for $17,731, which was about the cost for the same house ten years ago. There is no observable real estate bubble in Inkster. Similarly, there are communities across the nation that have observed little or no price appreciation over the past dozen years. Whatever economic problems the residents of these areas must deal with, inflated home values are not among them.

This now gets us to the basic intent of this article: to provide guidance for those concerned with the bubble and the possible misfortunes that may result. First and foremost, resolve not to be a victim. If you reside in an area that experienced rapid home price escalation, you’re aware of the prevailing pressures and influences. You’ve no doubt been deluged with solicitations from mortgage lenders eager to refinance your home with an easy qualifying adjustable rate mortgage that will put cash into your pocket. I suggest that you avoid any such overtures. With short term interest rates currently rising, the likelihood is that longer term mortgage rates will continue to follow suit. The only refinancing that makes sense is in switching from an adjustable rate to a fixed rate, and I recommend that you not increase its principal balance.

With the rudiments behind us, let’s now take a moment to concentrate on one other aspect of the bubble, which I’ll preface by quoting the first line of the first chapter of a recent book: “There is no disaster that is not someone else’s opportunity.” In simple terms, how might those of us in or near areas of unrestrained speculation profit from the coming cataclysm? Our best guide is to look back at a past real estate collapse, and compare the common elements. Perhaps a testimonial is in order.

In the 1980s America experienced a real estate boom not unlike what we’ve seen since the turn of this century. And as night follows day, during the period 1990-1993, home values declined throughout much of the nation as lenders foreclosed on massive numbers of homes, with no area more severely affected than Southern California. However, not until early 1995 did these unsold inventories begin to be dumped on the market. There appears to be a delay of two or three years after the bottom is reached before bargain properties become available. It was during the years 1995 through 1997 that I acquired dozens of vacant residences at clearly distress prices. I concentrated my efforts on real estate held either by government agencies such as the VA and FHA, or by commercial banks and mortgage insurance companies. Clearly these hapless owners wanted quick and unfettered disposal, and my bids accommodated them: purchase price all cash, property condition “as is,” no contingencies, and escrow to close in fifteen days. Thanks to a strong rental market, I enjoyed a nice cash flow until disposing of them one at a time. As you might guess, it turned out quite profitably.

Let me conclude with a prediction and an admonition. Prediction: Real estate bubble In areas where current home prices are clearly irrational, there will be a massive readjustment downward. Admonition: Don’t try to anticipate the market. Wait until the distress is clear to everyone before seeking bargains. Real estate bubble There will be plenty of opportunity when that time arrives.